“The origin or coming into being of something
~ the genesis of a new political movement”
What turns ALBA into a campaign force to be reckoned with? What transforms it into a daily news item? What is the way forward? What gets us independence?
The way I see it, the following routes emerge:
1 – Indyref 2023 is not delivered and SNP declines.
Nicola Sturgeon does not deliver an independence referendum in 2023. Following the failure there will be a flock to ALBA following the decline of the SNP.
2 – Indyref 2023 is not delivered and a reverse Winnie Ewing.
In the dissatisfaction of not getting an Indyref in 2023 that the SNP will be punished in the first by-election after, by an ALBA candidate.
3 – ALBA continues establishing itself as is.
ALBA continues to contest as many elections as it can, from local government, Westminster and Holyrood including occasional by-elections to continue to establish itself as a better potential government.
4 – ALBA commits for the regional list only.
ALBA focuses its entire effort on its policy agenda and on the supermajority strategy. Aiming to be the independence guarantor in 2026.
If the SNP do not deliver an independence referendum in 2023, which is likely to be the case, and more eloquently explained by Robin McAlpine.
There is only one moment the ALBA party can change that – Holyrood 2026. That’s it.
Options 1, 2, 3 present an increased risk for losing independence representatives (on paper).
Options 1, 2, 3 present a dependency requirement, things must happen and in turn create a chain reaction.
Remember in probability – simplicity always wins. Chain reactions are not guaranteed.
We’re left with this;
ALBA can guarantee not removing a single councillor, MP or MSP – other than the 2 SNP MSPs on the list, while adding 33 ALBA.
97 nationalist MSPs to 32 unionists.
ALBA can guarantee an immediate referendum.
ALBA can guarantee invoking the status of the supermajority defined in the Scotland Act.
2026 is the only point ALBA can deliver. Our best chance to do so, is to remove all risk, and in doing so, create our own genesis.